Behind the Breakthrough: Q&A with Lyn Baranowski, Avalyn Pharma

“It was really striking to me how little research and development was going on despite how serious these diseases are. Many of them are deadly, and patients have very few treatment options. I thought that there was a lot of good that I could do personally to try to bring some new treatments to market.”

There are more than 200 types of Interstitial Lung Diseases (ILD), and the most severe cases, which include Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) and Progressive Pulmonary Fibrosis (PPF), have a patient survival time closer to 3-5 years from diagnosis without a lung transplant. The disease severity is what sets the life expectancy apart for IPF and PPF and currently approved therapeutics for these respiratory illnesses can slow disease progression but carry significant side effects that limit their use. Baranowski saw an opportunity to address a large unmet need and eventually made her way to Avalyn Pharma, which was built on the mission to develop inhalable medicines that minimize systemic exposure and are more precisely targeted to the lungs. She feels she can have the most impact serving in roles at smaller companies, where “you can really see and feel the outcome of your day and how you spend time in terms of driving the company forward.”

On the heels of Avalyn’s tremendous success with an oversubscribed $175 million Series C financing in September 2023, Baranowski shares more about her background, leading and advancing Avalyn, and insights into her leadership style.

What motivated you to join Avalyn Pharma?

My career began at Novartis, where I primarily focused on the commercial, financial, and strategic aspects of the business. It was there that I was exposed to the significant unmet needs in lung diseases, particularly in rare conditions like pulmonary fibrosis, cystic fibrosis, and pulmonary hypertension. I observed the lack of research and development in these areas and recognized the severity of these diseases, often with limited treatment options.

Driven by a desire to make a positive impact, I left Novartis to work at a New York family office involved in venture capital-style investing. My biggest investment in those years was in Pearl Therapeutics, a company working on combination therapies for asthma and COPD. This experience provided valuable insights into inhalation drug delivery.

Over the years, I discovered my passion for working in smaller companies, building teams, drug pipelines, and making a difference. Despite limited resources, I found it rewarding to be entrepreneurial and witness the tangible impact of our efforts. I was heavily involved in the respiratory therapeutic area which is why my passion for addressing rare lung diseases continues to grow and I’m excited about the potential to make a positive impact in this field.

What differentiates Avalyn from other IPF and ILD players in the industry?

Most lung-focused companies still prioritize systemic drug delivery and in the case of IPF, inhaled delivery is a distinctive approach. At Avalyn, we focus on pulmonary fibrosis, a deadly disease that falls under the umbrella of interstitial lung diseases, and despite its severity, there are only two approved drugs for this condition, pirfenidone and nintedanib, both of which are administered orally. These oral medications are often poorly tolerated, leading to a high rate of discontinuation, with only 30% of patients in the U.S. taking them.

Our therapeutic focus is to improve treatment by delivering these drugs through inhalation. This approach enhances drug concentration in the lungs, improving clinical efficacy, while reducing systemic exposure, resulting in better tolerability. Inhaled delivery is itself incredibly challenging and complicated, so you really have to think about the way to deliver the medicine, how often you deliver the medicine, what the formulation is, and what the device is. It has the potential to make effective drugs more accessible and tolerable for patients, potentially extending their lives and improving their overall health. This shift in perspective is a learning curve for our field, and we hope the market will follow suit, positioning us for future success.

Avalyn’s executive leadership team and board of directors is 50% women. What’s that like, and how does it compare to the industry as a whole?

Are there any companies in our industry whose board is half women? I don’t think so. I’m incredibly proud of that. We’ve also just hired a bunch of fabulous women who aren’t necessarily on our leadership team but are VP-level. I care about hiring people who care about their jobs and patients, and I think that’s again, the right way to align as a team and be motivated.

What advice would you give to the next generation of female leaders?

Do not shy away from being empathetic. As a woman, it is important to remain committed to embracing this part of our identity. I believe in being authentic and accept that it’s perfectly fine for me to get a little emotional when a patient shares their story with us. Making a difference for patients is what drives me and I’m often touched by the stories they share with us about what living with their disease is like.  It’s a natural and genuine response, and I’m proud of it.

What’s been the most rewarding part since joining Avalyn in 2022?

I love telling the story of the company, so it’s a lot of fun for me to sit down with doctors,  investors, analysts, or people we’ve recently hired at Avalyn and tell them what we’re up to. It’s empowering to watch people go from not fully understanding to a moment of excitement and realization of the impact we can have.

We also just completed a $175 million financing at the end of September which feels like a huge accomplishment, especially in today’s market, and has enabled me to start hiring great people.  Whether it is people that I’ve worked with before or have always wanted to work with, it feels great to now have an incredible team that we’re building and together, we’re going to do a lot of good for a lot of patients. At the end of the day, 95% of the fun I have at work has to do with the people I work with and how much I enjoy working with them.

What’s one lesson you’ve learned so far as CEO?

Don’t be afraid to be passionate and be yourself. I’m genuinely passionate about what I’m working on, and I know it translates to my peers because I’ve been told it’s infectious. If you can do that and lean into what you’re good at, then people respond to it. And, if you don’t know the answer, that’s okay. Ask your colleagues for help, advice, and feedback.

How has F-Prime been supportive during your tenure as CEO?

When I started at Avalyn a year ago, F-Prime’s Ketan Patel and Brian Yordy were invaluable and provided me with essential context regarding our historical data and the market’s overarching trends. They both possess a unique perspective when interpreting data, which enriched my own understanding and enhanced my capabilities.

How would you describe your leadership style?

I am very much a lead by example kind of person. I love talking things through and collaborating and getting people’s input. If I have a strong opinion, I’ll tell you, but often I like to hear from the team, and I think people like to be heard. At Avalyn, we’re all about integrity and keeping the patients that we’re trying to serve at the center of our focus. To me, that’s the right thing to do, but it is also the right thing for our business. If we can make decisions about how to develop our drugs with patients in mind, it means we bring drugs to market that are going to be able to impact their lives positively.

At the end of the day, we all work in this industry because we care about making a difference in patients’ lives and if we can keep that as our driver and our mission, it’s a great way to remind people of why we all wake up in the morning and what we’re trying to do together.

What makes you most hopeful about Avalyn’s future on the heels of a successful series C fundraise?

We’re in the process of launching a significant clinical trial for inhaled pirfenidone (AP01), and our focus is on diligently executing the study startup. This trial is set to be a large, well-controlled global effort, representing a crucial step forward for inhaled pirfenidone’s path to market, which is a very exciting development.

The capital we just raised also allows us to do the next stage of work with AP02 (inhaled nintedanib), which is the second lead clinical asset, and continue our efforts on the preclinical work for the fixed-dose combo of the two together. By transitioning from one mechanism to two, this combination therapy has the potential to revolutionize our field.

A lot of exciting initiatives are going on and it is my priority to build the company, grow the team, and do all the important work to set us up for success for the next stage.

Subscribe to our newsletter to get the latest updates on how our portfolio companies continue to lead the way in their respective fields.

Software Buying Has Changed Forever

Software buyers are now more sophisticated than ever. In an early age of software sales, suited-and-booted Oracle salespeople were taking buyers out to dinner and educating them about a solution while engaging in a formal discovery and RFP process. It was an excessive and long sales cycle, with buyers learning about a product and building a trusted relationship with a small number of sellers. This formal dance led to a mediocre problem-solution fit, no concept of after-sale customer success — and still came with a big-ticket price tag.

Today, buyers are far more savvy and educated software purchasers, and range from CIOs to departmental teams. They know the right questions to ask and if they don’t, formal and informal networks exist for virtually every job function — from CISO slack channels to engineering manager meetups to conferences for finance heads and HR leaders. Public forums like G2 Crowd and Capterra have digitized formal review services (which now include feedback from peers as well as experts) while data-driven buyer intelligence platforms like Vendr support the full procurement lifecycle.

Buyers now come to vendors already understanding their needs and how it will work with their tech stack, and it’s very likely they already know which solution is best for them. With hundreds of B2B SaaS companies in our global portfolio, we have had a front-row seat as these interactions between reps and prospects changed over time, and this market transparency has been an incredible forcing function for software vendors to step up their game — from product to sales to customer success and beyond. And as a result, the existing tools of managing customer engagement are no longer sufficient. Software vendors and their sales and marketing teams need solutions that help them engage with better-educated customers at precisely the moments customers want that interaction.

Enter Warmly, which is building the world’s first AI-driven, autonomous sales orchestration solution to help software vendors thrive in this digitally-enabled, fast moving environment. Warmly intelligently alerts sales and marketing reps when a potential customer engages across channels, complete with context about the prospect’s role and network. Warmly automatically sends intent-based outreach on behalf of the sales team, which frees time for higher value activities like building relationships with customers or personalizing messaging. It allows sales teams to scalably interact with prospects in a way that is productive and personalized for both parties. We believe Warmly can be a foundational solution for this type of event-driven sales future.

Congrats to founders Maximus Greenwald, Carina Boo, Alan Zhao, and the visionary team at Warmly on their $11M Series A funding from Felicis, NFX, Zoom Ventures, Maven, and F-Prime Capital.

Behind the Build: Q&A with Stephen Smith, NOCD

Colored by his own experience with OCD, Stephen Smith helped create NOCD, a digital health startup to address this chronic and severe psychiatric condition that affects one in 40 people, which is over 180 million people globally.

NOCD is dedicated to helping people with OCD and related conditions receive effective, affordable, and convenient treatment. Therapy is delivered through a virtual platform, which offers members live video sessions with a licensed therapist who specializes in Exposure and Response Prevention (ERP) therapy –the gold-standard treatment for OCD. The platform also offers interim support between sessions from peer communities and self-help tools. It’s a model that Smith wishes he had access to when he was first navigating the disorder.

Smith explained, “I realized that my journey with OCD sadly was the norm, not the exception, and it didn’t have to be that way, considering how effective ERP can be for most with the condition.” In ERP therapy, an individual is encouraged to confront the stimuli that trigger distress related to their obsessions, while also resisting the urge to perform compulsions to reduce that distress.

As the success of ERP often depends on consistently practicing exposures outside of therapy sessions, Smith identified that “the problem was operational in nature, not clinical, which meant it could be solved.” That was the catalyst for the inception of NOCD, and an on-demand platform was developed to identify, engage, and manage people with OCD more effectively, affordably, and conveniently.

What motivated you to start NOCD?

I didn’t start experiencing severe OCD symptoms until I was a sophomore in college. Prior to my OCD onset, life was great. I was playing quarterback at a small university in Texas, doing very well academically, and thriving socially. However, my life changed on a dime once I returned home to the Chicagoland area for summer break. One evening, I started having strange fears that made me question my core values and character. Unlike other fears that naturally went away over time, these were different. They felt stuck in my head, and the harder I tried to make them go away, the worse they became. Because I didn’t realize that these were hallmark OCD symptoms, I sought help from a generalist psychologist in my area. He misdiagnosed and mistreated me, teaching me strategies that weren’t just ineffective but were harmful in retrospect. I got worse and saw several other providers who similarly misdiagnosed and mistreated me, causing me to become constantly distressed, develop severe depression, halt my football career, leave school, and eventually become housebound.

While housebound, I spent most of my time compulsively searching Google, to disprove my recurring, unwanted, fears and relieve my debilitating anxiety. This put me in a position to find a forum for other people going through the same experience. They defined their symptoms as OCD and shared how they regained their life by doing ERP Therapy. I felt like I had a breakthrough and immediately searched for ERP Therapy. That’s when I ran into a whole other set of barriers: There was only one licensed therapist in my area who specialized in ERP, and it cost over $300 per session to work with her. Moreover, she had a seven-month waitlist, preventing me from getting help even if I could find a way to pay for the care. It was a disaster, but a family member helped me eventually get off the waitlist, cover the cost of the treatment, and see the provider. The experience completely changed my life. The ERP specialist diagnosed me with OCD, started me on ERP Therapy, and helped me see transformational results after only a handful of months. The progress allowed me to eventually return to school, restart my football career, and finish my degree. While at school, I had an opportunity to reflect on my journey, ultimately forming my vision for NOCD.

What differentiates NOCD from other telehealth providers in the industry? In what ways have you achieved success where others in the field have fallen short?

NOCD is the only OCD-specialty provider in the industry that accepts insurance for over 140 million Americans in all 50 states and has a wait time of less than 7 days on average. Further, we offer care that is a hybrid of “tech and touch,” an integrated treatment experience that helps people not only during sessions, but also between sessions when their therapist isn’t available. Consequently, in the largest peer-reviewed OCD treatment study ever conducted, NOCD Therapy was proven to drive significant reductions in OCD severity in half the amount of time than standard ERP Therapy.

What’s been the most rewarding part of your tenure with NOCD to date?

One of the most rewarding parts of my tenure with NOCD is seeing the outcomes we generate for our members, particularly their personal anecdotes because they are a testament to the profound impact of our efforts. OCD can feel really isolating and we make it a priority to bring together the OCD community so that no one feels alone. Also, it’s been very rewarding watching several people on our team develop professionally over the years. We’ve had people who joined the company out of college who are now directors or VPs. They’ve flourished here, and they’ll be able to work anywhere they choose down the road.

How would you describe your leadership style?

Although my sports background makes me competitive, I pride myself on being involved. My style is to form strong relationships with people on our team at all levels, so I can ensure they feel happy, healthy, and properly supported. I try to lead by example and push the tempo operationally, so people can be in a situation that allows them to achieve beyond their personal expectations and move mountains in the industry.

What’s one lesson you’ve learned so far as Co-Founder and CEO?

As Co-founder and CEO, there comes a time when the success of the company is completely based on how well key people in the company perform. Therefore, it’s up to me to not only find excellent talent but also to groom and develop talent.

What does the future look like for NOCD?

F-Prime has been crucial in helping my team and me understand how to scale NOCD in such a way that it withstands the test of time. We have “product-market fit,” with patients, providers, and payers, so now we’re focused on efficiently scaling to reach millions of people globally in need of evidence-based care.

Our company is excited about the opportunity to scale with partners who are interested in identifying people with OCD and related conditions. For instance, we would like to make at least one preferred psychiatrist partner in each U.S. state that we serve, to allow us to expand medication management operations. We don’t offer medication management services, for context. Seeing our members get better makes me most hopeful about NOCD’s future—many of them not only experience life-changing outcomes but sometimes even life-saving outcomes.

What’s the best piece of professional advice you’ve ever received?

Build a product that people don’t just like, but love. It is the key to building a generational company. We take that advice seriously every day at NOCD.

Subscribe to our newsletter to get the latest updates on how our portfolio companies continue to lead the way in their respective fields.

Tracking the Industry Rebound with the F-Prime Fintech Index

Introducing our upgraded tool for tracking public fintech markets

Last month, we launched our new version of the F-Prime Fintech Index. Users can now explore:

  1. Adaptive visual multiples and benchmarks
  2. Head-to-head company comparisons
  3. Adaptive sector and vertical-specific benchmarks
  4. Time series of historical metrics by sector and revenue growth
  5. Company and sector comparisons by revenue, growth, margins, multiples, and more.

Using these new tools, we wanted to share some key insights.

 

Fintech is Recovering

While the F-Prime Fintech Index took the steepest decline of all the indexes we’re tracking in 2021 and 2022 — plummeting 72% in 2022 — it has also experienced the sharpest rebound over the last 12 months, climbing 67%. While this is still far from its peak, fintech businesses continue to grow and we expect to see more IPOs return to the market over the next few years.

f-prime fintech index

In terms of market capitalization, Shopify, Paypal, MercadoLibre, Nubank, and Square are all leading the F-Prime Fintech Index. These companies are also top contenders for revenue.

f-prime fintech index company comparison

For the top ten companies in the F-Prime Fintech Index, median growth rate remains stable at 57 percent despite the changes in valuation.

growth rate company comparison f-prime fintech index

Meanwhile, there has been a large recalculation of revenue multiples. Median growth rate companies (those that grew LTM revenue by 20-40 percent) are now trading at 5x. Throughout 2020 and 2021, they regularly traded at more than 10x.

multiples f-prime fintech index

 

Payments

f-prime fintech index

FIS, Paypal and Adyen have the largest payment volume, with $2.2T, $1.4T, and $829B respectively.

f-prime fintech index

Meanwhile, MercadoLibre, Shopify and dLocal have the highest take rate.

f-prime fintech index

Finally, dLocal, Marqeta and PagSeguro top the TPV growth chart.

 

Banking and WAM

In terms of users, disruptors like Nubank and Nerdwallet are catching up to large incumbents like Chase. Their growth rates are high — 33 and 7 percent, respectively — with considerably lower CAC.

f-prime fintech index

Of course, Chase clearly has a much, much higher market cap — $410B vs $37B for Nubank — as it can extract more value with multiple lines of business, the most profitable of which are Consumer & Community Banking and Asset & Wealth management. It remains to be seen if the challengers can monetize users as successfully as incumbents.

f-prime fintech index

Despite an ongoing “crypto winter” that has reduced the number of users and overall holdings for companies like Coinbase, crypto companies are still managing large numbers of both. Meanwhile, equity trading disruptors like Robinhood are also quickly catching up to traditional incumbents like Charles Schwab in terms of number of users, with 15.9M vs 34.1M and a 34 percent growth rate. At the current rate, Robinhood could eclipse Charles Schwab’s user numbers by 2026.

However, much like in the banking sector, incumbents like Schwab retain considerably higher AUM and can monetize users more effectively. It remains to be seen whether challengers like Robinhood can challenge incumbents in terms of monetization.

Explore the Index

The F-Prime Fintech Index is a free resource, and a great place to see what’s really going on in the industry. Questions? Insights? Get in touch here.

Fintech in Q3 — And Loads of New Functionality for the F-Prime Fintech Index!

Profitable Fintechs That Demonstrate Sustained High Growth Are Rewarded With Big Multiples in Q3. The Rest — Not So Much.

Headline: This quarter, we wanted to show how the Index has performed over the past year. After the significant decline in fintech stocks alongside the broader tech sector in 2021 and 2022, fintech disruptors have quietly recovered a lot of ground over the last twelve months. The F-Prime Fintech Index is up 80%+ LTM, though still ~60% off its 2021 highs. The F-Prime Fintech Index continues to outperform other indexes we’re tracking: the Emerging Cloud Index was up ~6%, Nasdaq grew ~27%, and the S&P 500 climbed ~19% over the past year.

Despite a year-to-date rebound, the F-Prime Fintech Index lost $74B in market cap in Q3, with the median market cap decreasing from $2.8B to $2.4B. Payments companies Adyen, Shopify, and Block drove 75% of the decline, losing $31B, $13B, and $13B respectively in market capitalization in the wake of earnings and profitability misses, plus headwinds in the overall market.

Multiples: Companies that continue to grow rapidly (that is, 40%+ YoY) have seen an increase in multiples to 5x, up from 3.8x last quarter. Investors are rewarding sustained high-growth with higher multiples — a reversion to historical valuations and a change from our last update. For the first time since Q4 2021, high-growth companies are garnering higher multiples than medium growth companies (see the flip in the chart above), despite the fact that most have not achieved profitability.

However, most high-growth companies are still trading significantly below their 2021 multiples, on average reaching ~40% of their Q4 2021 multiples. A few companies have nonetheless exceeded their 2021 multiples, rewarded for their sustained high growth and profitability. Well done, Wise — 72% YoY growth and 12% profit margins.

By sub-sector: Sectors that experienced significant valuation re-ratings in 2022 saw the biggest bounce back in Q3. Multiples in the lending vertical rebounded from 1.1x in Q4 2022 to 6.1x this quarter. Category leader Affirm increased to 6.8x from 3.7x; however, removing Funding Circle from the Index and Lufax’s lack of multiples (due to its negative enterprise value) account for ~50% of the increase in average lending multiples.

Macro and real-estate sector concerns continue to weigh on the proptech vertical which is still trading at ~1x, though better than 0.5x at the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, all proptech companies in the F-Prime Fintech Index saw multiples increase, with Blend seeing a jump to 2x from 0.8x.

While the durability of payments businesses has garnered stable multiples (4.5x for the past year), a few — Shopify, Flywire, Mercado Libre, Remitly, and Wise — have seen improvements in multiples. Likewise, B2B SaaS companies have continued to attain the highest multiples (more details below).

Index removals: While M&A activity continues to increase in both public and private markets, no F-Prime Fintech Index companies were acquired this quarter. However, Bright Health Group (BHG) no longer met our criteria and was removed from the Index.

F-Prime’s Summer Internship Program: Meet our 2023 interns and fellows

Thank you to our interns and fellow for their contributions this summer and for choosing F-Prime!

This summer, F-Prime was thrilled to welcome a talented cohort of interns and fellows to our Cambridge and London offices to help with competitive landscape analysis, sourcing, founder calls, and more. Read on to learn what it’s like to join our internship program.

“I have been able to explore new thematic areas in which the team was still building its knowledge base. By getting deep into the science and innovation through meeting entrepreneurs and academics, I have added to the team’s thinking and identified potential plays which culminated in presentations to the partners. A special shout out to Ana and Martin for the mentorship and support over the summer!”

 

“My time was split between assisting with an ongoing deal — leading a summer exploration project — and taking part in meetings with potential investments. I’ve had a great time in all of these activities, but I particularly enjoyed being an integral part of a deal team. Between self-guided research into standards of care, calls with key opinion leaders, diving into the relevant primary literature, and doing some basic market forecasting, I was able to leverage the clinical and research training I’ve received and develop so many new skills along the way.”

 

“I have been researching the biotech landscape of foreign markets and performing due diligence on interesting licensing opportunities abroad. I have also participated in many introductory and follow-up meetings with prospective US-based companies, where my research expertise and previous work experience have been invaluable in helping me evaluate each opportunity. I’ve learned a lot throughout the summer and was able to connect with people at all professional levels and across disciplines. One important skill I’ve been able to develop during my time at F-Prime is learning how to become versed in a new area of science within days, which is quite different from my Ph.D. experience of developing deep expertise in one area over many years.”

 

“I joined the F-Prime/FBRI team primarily due to the invaluable opportunity to collaborate with individuals deeply committed to fostering and accelerating my personal learning and professional growth. Although it is a lean team, I am fortunate because it translates to more one-on-one attention. I am getting opportunities to actively participate in diverse projects that make me feel valued as an individual, and that my contributions are noticed and appreciated (even as an intern!).”

 

“I was drawn to F-Prime because of the learning culture at the firm. I wanted to play a role in the translation of good ideas into real medicines and the firm has amazing people doing exactly that. On virtually every topic I encounter, there is a resident expert at the firm who can help me in framing my thinking. This ability to get to the right answer faster makes everyone more productive.

I also want to highlight that the deals the firm sees are a function of its reputation. People want to invest with F-Prime because they know they’ll not only receive capital but also an engaged partner who can help them along the trajectory of the company. This means that we see some of the most interesting ideas that will shape the future of medicine and often get to take part in their realization.”

 

“One of the exhilarating projects I’ve been involved in is the thematic research on Gen AI x Fintech. The possibilities with breakthrough technology like Gen AI are awe-inspiring. I find it fascinating to delve into its potential for the future and hear how visionary entrepreneurs contemplate disrupting the financial services landscape. It’s been an incredible journey so far, and I’m eagerly looking forward to sharing the outcomes of our research.”

 

“I have always planned to spin out my PhD research but had no idea how VCs actually decide to fund these projects. I joined to learn how other spinouts and startups pitch to VCs and learn about the decision processes that VCs make.”

Applications for 2024 are not open yet, but if you are interested in learning more, please send an email to careers@fprimecapital.com.

Technologies Enabling the Future of Robotics

In June, F-Prime co-hosted Robotics Invest, an invite-only summit packed with keynotes, panels, and case studies featuring the robotics industry’s most experienced investors, founders, and operators. During her time there, Betsy Mulé took advantage of this unusual concentration of tech industry talent by interviewing several founders — Yaro Tenzer of RightHand RoboticsHelen Greiner of Tertill and iRobotRajat Bhageria of Chef RoboticsDavid Morczinek of AirWorks and David Johnson of Dexai Robotics — about the state of the industry.

Here, they discuss the technologies that are enabling the current wave of robotics innovation, and what the future of the industry might look like.

 

Recorded at Robotics Invest

5 Lessons Robotics Founders Can Learn From the AV Industry

Founders must learn the hard-fought lessons of the last five years to find success in this unique category.

Throughout the late 2010s and early 2020s, the autonomous vehicle industry captured the imagination of the startup community and the public. However, the category’s meteoric rise preceded an even more meteoric fall over the last 18 to 24 months. From 2018 to 2021, investments in the AV sector across the U.S. and Europe increased by nearly 2.5x, eventually peaking at close to $10 billion in 2021. Then, in 2022, investments fell to $4 billion, with 2023 likely to see further precipitous declines.

Meanwhile, the broader robotics ecosystem has continued to flourish, with companies focused on mostly industrial “vertical” use cases now commanding the bulk of investment dollars. In 2022, these companies attracted $7 billion in investments, defying the broader slowdown in VC investment by growing 15% over the previous year.

We recently analyzed the trends shaping the industry in our State of Robotics report, and identified five lessons that the next generation of robotics founders can take from the successes and failures of the AV industry.

vertical robotics investment overtakes autonomous vehicles

 

VC excitement for hardware businesses is higher than ever

In the U.S. and Europe, more than $60 billion have been invested in robotics and AV alone over five years, with the AV sector leading the way. AI is making hardware much smarter, which is enabling companies to generate the kind of high-margin recurring revenues typically associated with software businesses.

AI also creates opportunities to disrupt traditional industries with massive addressable markets. For example, across the logistics ecosystem, AV companies such as Aurora are disrupting the trucking industry, while companies like Locus and RightHand Robotics (an F-Prime portfolio company) are transforming how fulfillment operations are done.

For founders, this surge in interest means there are more robotics investors than ever, ranging from newcomers in the category to those with an extensive track record in the space. Even top-tier investors such as Sequoia and Andreessen Horowitz are starting to make investments in the category, an encouraging bellwether for overall VC interest in robotics.

Nevertheless, hardware-oriented investments are not the right fit for all investors, and it’s best to seek out those who have made a commitment to robotics and understand what it takes to be successful.

 

You must eventually build a real business

Much of the early effort in AV focused on technology development, and success was defined by performance of demos and pilots. However, pilots are not the same as commercial success. As both acquirers and investors realized the challenges of creating self-sustaining AV businesses, capital started to dry up and many companies shut down or were forced to scale back their strategy.

Today’s robotics founders must focus on real commercial proof points at every phase of their journey. Investors want to see production deployments that deliver measurable ROI (return on investment). Pilot customers who are “excited by the technology” are very different from customers who are motivated enough to manage the operational changes required to adopt it and demonstrate high utilization.

At the same time, founders must demonstrate attractive unit economics associated with their offering — for example, more than 70% gross margin after subtracting BOM (bill of materials) and support costs from lifetime revenues.

 

Use case selection matters

Early efforts in AV targeted the largest, most challenging problem: generalized autonomy on passenger roads. While the TAM (total addressable market) was massive and the use case seemed like the obvious one to target, technology challenges and uncertain timelines ultimately led many players to pivot toward more tractable use cases, such as trucking and delivery. Lots of capital was burned in that transition, and as investor interest waned, many companies did not survive.

Founders must identify use cases that have real value and that can be realistically automated without massive capital investment. Many companies are now pursuing use cases in constrained operating environments with greater fault tolerance, and often with a human-in-the-loop element, which creates more technical feasibility. Identifying such use cases where the TAM is still significant is the sweet spot for a VC-backed robotics business, often requiring founders to have a deep understanding of the target industry.

 

Acquisition and exit activity drives a virtuous cycle of investments

GM’s acquisition of Cruise for $500 million in 2016 sparked the AV race. The deal made the startup community realize AV’s disruptive potential in the eyes of incumbents, and how much capital they were ready to invest in the acquisition of technology. The ensuing years saw annual AV investments take off, the creation of 10 AV unicorns, and large IPOs or acquisitions for companies such as Aurora, Zoox, and Uber ATG.

The lesson for startups is that large incumbents can propel investment momentum and help overcome investor reluctance around what may be a still-unproven use case. Investors will look to incumbents for validation of the problem statement, and many incumbents are starting to actively engage startups for exactly this purpose, like John Deere’s Startup Collaborator and Suffolk Technologies’ BOOST. If your startup is able to drive real customer value and disrupt legacy business models, incumbents will eventually come calling, even if they are not yet active acquirers. Investment dollars will follow, more incumbents will jump in, and startup formation will accelerate.

 

Only the strong survive

AV businesses were very capital intensive, and as investments ebbed, only the strongest players were able to continue raising capital. Even companies such as Argo AI, with more than $1 billion of capital, were ultimately shut down, whereas Aurora was able to raise an additional $820 million as recently as mid-2023.

Founders must focus on being the winner in your chosen segment or use case. There will inevitably be competition for any good idea, and those startups will often find willing early-stage investors to support them. However, being an “also-ran” is ultimately a losing strategy in robotics. Later stage dollars will flow disproportionately to the winner, customers will favor the most established providers, and acquirers will focus their efforts on the market leaders.

Today’s robotics founders have a number of factors on their side: technological acceleration, labor shortages, stagnant productivity gains, and a cadre of investors who are increasingly interested in the category. However, founders must learn the hard-fought lessons of the last five years to find success in this unique category.

Originally published in TechCrunch. Read the full story here.

Check out our State of Robotics report here.

Influencers Are a New Class of Travel Agents — But Lack the Right Tools

For many, “travel agent” sounds like an anachronistic job title, conjuring images of shoulder pads and strip malls, corded telephones and desktop computers with cathode-ray tube monitors. Indeed, ever since the advent of online booking, travel industry watchers have been predicting the demise of traditional travel agents. But in reality, travel agencies are still estimated to be a $72 billion industry in the United States alone, and upwards of $450 billion globally. Travel agents haven’t disappeared, many have just swapped the drab offices and chunky monitors for ring lights and smartphones.

In this story for travel industry publication PhocusWire, Betsy Mulé explores the opportunities awaiting startups who can build useful tools to help influencers step into their newfound role as modern travel agents.

Read the full story here.

Originally published in PhocusWire

How Quovo Became Embedded in the New Financial Services Tech Stack

Lowell Putnam joins David Jegen to reflect on Quovo’s biggest wins

If you’re a fintech startup and the prospect is a top three bank, the answer is probably “as much as possible — without breaking your team.”  

In the late 2010s, financial API startup Quovo spent two full years selling and onboarding one of the largest banks in the United States. 

“We were a company of 60 people at the time, and eight of them had to be on a call with this bank every day, five days a week,” CEO and Co-founder Lowell Putnam said recently, speaking with F-Prime’s David Jegen about their partnership in the years after we co-led their 2017 Series B. “They did all of their releases on Saturday nights after midnight, and they needed people from our team to listen in. Not a lot of startups are ready for that.” 


“It was quite telling that one extremely old and traditional FI would reach out to acquire Quovo at the same time that you’re also getting offers from one of the fastest-growing companies in fintech.”

David Jegen, F-Prime Managing Partner


The Perks of Being a Grownup 

Nevertheless, David and other investors on the board backed the team to close the deal. Quovo ultimately won one of the largest open banking contracts in the U.S., a market-moving vindication of the company’s account connection and aggregation services — and its implementation team’s execution.  

“Having a top three bank, especially, gave us this great sense of being a grownup compared to the other folks out there,” Lowell said. “We remain one of the few startups that had a contract from them, but it was a two-year process. David and some of our other investors stuck with it the whole way: ‘Keep doing it, keep putting the implementation resources in.’  

“And everything that went into that deal ended up making the company stronger. But if you guys hadn’t supported us — because it was bending everything from a spend standpoint — it would’ve been so much more difficult.” 

 

The Mafia Effect 

Quovo developed some serious go-to-market muscles selling to a major bank, and they helped the company knock down logo after logo across the financial services industry in the years after that deal.  

“We had to build a full implementation, customer success, and account management team — and not like, you know, a typical client success team taking folks out for beers,” Lowell said. “Some of the folks from that team are now doing amazing things. Adams Conrad, a principal who’s crushing it at QED right now, was managing our entire relationship with Betterment. Nicole Newlin is doing great things at Ocrolus. Our first data science hire is now a senior member of the engineering team at Plaid. And the rest of Quovo saw this team putting out fires for that one big bank — it just grew the rest of the company up, too. It was incredible for the culture.” 

 “I often say that successful alumni say as much about a startup’s founders than the ultimate financial outcome,” David added. “And I think it’s a wonderful statement that the people Lowell attracted and helped to grow went on to do other great things.” 

 

Building Again  

With great logo diversity among its customers — from financial titans to tiny startups — and clear momentum, it wasn’t long before acquirers came knocking. 

“You had a foot in the world of big financial institutions,” David said, “and fielded an offer from a player in that space who respected you and Quovo in a way that was disproportionate to your size. 

“It was quite telling that one extremely old and traditional FI would reach out to acquire Quovo at the same time that you’re also getting offers from one of the fastest-growing companies in fintech. It ended extremely well.” 

Plaid and Quovo ultimately combined to become the clear category leader for financial data aggregation and account authentication, and one of the great success stories of the fintech disruption.